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Abstract of the Article

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Dry spell risk analysis of Isfahan Provine

Authors:
[ Masoud Nasri ] - department of Waterdhed management ,Azad University , Ardestan Branch, Iran
[ Reza Modarres ] - Faculty of Natural resources, Isfahan University of technology
[ Yusef Moradi ] - Isfahan general govermant , Office of Natural hazards

Abstract:

Drought risk management needs drought risk analysis. Dry spells, or the number of days without rainfall, is a drought index which is important for risk analysis and management planning. In this study, annual maximum dry spell of 31 stations of isfahan province were gathered for regional risk analysis . after trend analysis distribution functions were fitted to observed series and Logistic distribution and generalized extreme values distributions were found as the best regional distributions. The results of his study showed that the average dry spell of the province is 148 days. They also showed that eastern and southern rerions are at higher risk that other regions. However , in the higher return periods, the risk is almost equal for the entire region and is equal to 60 to 85% of the year. At lest , we can say that disaster management ,water consumption and the selection of best vegetation species.

Keywords:

Drought , Dry Spell , Risk analysys , Logistic distribution , Disaster management