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Simulation and Prediction of Picea abies and Pinus resinosa based on global warming scenarios

Author:
[ jalilvand ] - Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agricultural Resouroes

Abstract:

In this stady a process oriented model of the JABOWA tree growth model was verified to simulate and to predict tree growth in hypotheical climate resulting from global climate change scenarios. Based on literature, four treatments were applied, normal temperature, 1 and increases af 1,3 and .5C;. First JABOWA was calibrated for Norway spruce (Picea abies Aiton) and red pine (Pinus resinosa Karst L.) using the weather date from 1953 to 1992. Comparison of basal area increment of both species for last (1983-1992) and the next (1993-2002) ten years showed that there was no significant differences when temperature was normal or increased by 1 and 3C but it was significant ( p ~0.0 01) when temperanture inceased by 5C. Treament effects were negative on the growth of both species, except for normal and 1C.Red pine grew more than Norway spruce when the mean temperature was increased by 1, 3 and 5C It was concluded that Norway spruce was more likely deline than red pine if global warming occurs.

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