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The Study of Time Variation of Freezing Days in Mashad

Authors:
[ Alireza Shahabfar ] -
[ Sohrab Gharai ] -
[ Naser Javdani ] -

Abstract:

In this paper, with the aim of probability of local climate change detection, variation of freezing days in Mashad was studied for the period 195 1-2000. In primary survey it was recognized that the annual mean temperature and ab'solute minimum temperature in the mentioned period have increasing trend which shows acceptable harmony with decreasing trend of total freezing days. Mer testing Bartlett and using Kendall critical index. It was recognized that the annual freezing days has a downward trend, which is continual but some years is ruptured. Finally, the Mann-Kendall testing showed two significant decreasing trends in data series and specified that the amount of freezing days in Mashad have an upward trend in the end of the period. In the next stage, with the applied ARZMA time series model, the amount of freezing days in Mashad for the year 2001 predicted with error at about 3.3 percent.

Keywords:

Climate Change, Freezing day and Time series, Trend.