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Abstract of the Article

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A Survey on the Coincidence between Mashad Temperature Time Series and Global Temperature Variability and Changes

Authors:
[ Mahmood Khosravi ] -
[ Nasser Javedani Khalifea ] -
[ Sohrab Mohammadia Gharaie ] -

Abstract:

Today several hypotheses are propounded about the climate and temperature changes in the various regions of world, but the effect of climate change on Iran is unspecified Although the effects of climate variability on the temperature and precipitation of some regions of the country has been confirmed by some investigations, we need to have more extensive research to reveal the trend and the effects of climate change on the various regions of the country. In this paper, we have studied the seasonal temperature time series of Mashad station. For this purpose we have selected the temperature anomalies time series of Northern Hemisphere global, 0-30N latitude and 30-60N latitude from the year 1860 to 2002 and have compared with Mashad temperatures. At first we have extracted the basic descriptive statistics of time series based on primary and secondary -components of the data. Then we have analyzed the prevailing trends in time series by using the three models Linear. Quadrate and Exponential growth trend models, and we have shown the relationship between seasonal temperature of Mashad and global, NH, 0-30N and 30-60 N temperature time series. These data have a significant correlation correlation with Mashad temperature. We have also forecasted temperature time series until 2100 by using three models and have calculated the Trend Index (TI). In this study, we compare Trend Index and temperature anomaly forecast until 2100 of global temperature anomaly corresponding 7 scenarios of IPCC and 25 models from International Institutes with Mashad temperature anomaly. The results show that the exponential growth model provides a true forecas for the 21"' century temperature change which coincides with IPCC optimistic scenario. We have also evaluated the global warming impact on the Mashad temperature by comparison of sample data of different of the 2ofh century. The results show a significant difference between the temperature in different period and an increase in the Mashad Temperature in the late 2ofh century.

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