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Drought Frequency Analysis Using Markov Chain for Isfahan City

Authors:
[ Modarres ] -
[ Eslamian ] -

Abstract:

Drought is one of the major natural hazards, which has most harmhl impacts on environment, agricultural and hydrological factors than the other hazards. Isfahan city located in central arid regions of Iran has usually faced with drought. In this study, Isfahan stations were considered for drought frequency analysis using Markov chain procedure. At first, based on the procedure presented by Gibes and Mehr, annual rainfall of each station from 1969 to 1998 was divided into ten deciles using SPSS. In this approach, forth, fifth, sixth and seventh deciles are considered as normal: First, second and third as extreme, severe and normal drought: Eighth, ninth and tenth as wet and extreme wet, respectively. Then these rainfall condition of each year were determined and make a chain of transition conditions. A 3 x3 and 'x7 matrices of transition probability were derived using Markov chain. These matrices make an equilibrium matrix of transition conditions. The elements of this matrix are used to calculate the probability of drought. The results showed that the return period of extreme drought in Isfahan station is equal to 32 years for long period and 3 year for short period and that srought and wet periods replace at each 15 years.

Keywords:

Drought frequency analysis, Gibes and Maher method, Markov chain, Isfahan city.