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Current Climate and Climate Change Scenarios under Global Warming in Kazakhstan

Author:
[ Svetlana Dolgikh Kazakh ] -

Abstract:

Kazakhstan is located in Central Asia within 39°49'-55049' N and 46°28'-87018'E, at the center of the Eurasian continent. The landlocked country has the ninth largest landmass of any country in the world, 2.72 million square kilometers. The population of Kazakhstan was 14.8 million in 2001. Kazakhstan has four landscape zones: forest-steppe, steppe, semi-desert, and desert. The climate is continental, with wide variations throughout the territory. Precipitation varies from less than 150 mm in the central desert areas to more than 1,500 mm in mountainous regions. Average temperatures in January range from -18 'C in the north to -3 OC in the south; July averages are 19 'C in the north, and 30 'C in the south, j Climate change issues are considered important in Kazakhstan. Most of Kazakhstan is located in the marginal zones, which are considerably vulnerable to climate change. Throughout the country, the temperature sums for the growing season are sufficient for the cultivation of all species of cereals grown in a moderate temperature belt. However, there is a shortage of precipitation, and the cultivation of cereals is only possible in the north, northeast and in a narrow foothill area in the southeast of the country. Conditions in the south are favorable for heat-loving crops. Redistribution of precipitation and increased frequency and intensity. of droughts will entail negative consequences, particularly in agriculture and water management of the country. Meteorological observations at some stations in Kazakhstan started more than 100 years ago. This allowed estimation of a regional climate change over file period. The tendency of increase of average seasonal and annual air temperatures was observed during last centenary period in Kazakhstan. Maximal warming occurs in the spring period. Over the region, the mean annual surface temperature rose by about 1.3 OC during 1894-1997. The comparison between average temperatures for 196 1 - 1990 and for previous three decades has shown that this period has - appeared warmer, especially in northern part of the region in winter and spring. As well as on a global scale, the warmest years for Kazakhstan were during the eighties. The highest temperatures during last years were observed in 1995, however the a nomaly of temperature of this year has not exceeded the extreme value, which was observed in 1983. A negative trend of the total precipitation for the period 1894-1997 was observed over the territory of Kazakhstan. The decrease in annual precipitation, and in winter precipitation over the region was low. The increase in spring rainfall, and in summer and autumn and winter rainfall was slight as well. Compared to 1931-1960, the average long-term annual sums of precipitation for the period 196 1-1990 practically have not changed. Such regime of rainfall on the background of significant temperature rise is an evidence of increase in climate aridness over the most part of Kazakhstan within last century. Regional climate change scenarios were prepared from General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs that were promoted within the framework of United States Country Studies. The following model outputs were used: GFDL and GFDL- T -equilibrium and non-equilibrium models of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (University of Princeton, USA); UKMO - equilibrium model of the Meteorological Agency the United Kingdom; CCC -equilibrium model of the Canadian Climate Center; GISS -equilibrium model of the Gadded Institute of Space Studies (USA). Under doubling C02 conditions that are expected to occur by 2050-2075 average annual and average monthly temperatures over Kazakhstan are projected to increase considerably according to the considered GCMs. Precipitation change scenarios are less conclusive. According to most models an annual increase of precipitation is expected, according to some others rainfall would be similar to those at present or will decrease. All models predict also various rainfall changes on seasons. The results of the analysis show a range of possible temperature increase over the region. According to the "maximal warming" scenario (UKMO) changes in annual average air temperature and the sum of precipitation are expected to be 6.9 "C and -12%, respectively, under double C02 conditions. The highest temperature rise and significant decrease in rainfall is expected to occur in winter and summer. Under the "minimal warming" scenario (GISS) the increase in average annual temperature is expected to be 4.5 "C. This scenario implies an increase in the annual sum of precipitation by 28% on average. In the other scenarios, the growth of average annual temperature is expected to be 4.9-6.9 "C accompanied with increase in precipitation by 2- 24%. Most of the models predict the maximum temperature increase in the winter months. Kazakhstan territory allowed determining the possible shifts of the natural landscape zone bordes. The results show that all the models predict the humidity conditions worsening in the region under the climate change. According to the scenario of minimum warming, the humidity zones boundaries will shift to the north for about 50-100 km, and for 350-400 km - under the maximum warming scenario. The climate zone, where in Kazakhstan the graincrops are cultivated under the actual climate conditions, will be reduced by 6 to 23%. Under ?he UKMO scenario, which predicts the maximum warming, this zone disappears from Kazakhstan's territory, and the hyper-arid zone arises, which will occupy"'38% of the Republic's area. Such a nature of climate change will definitely affect the economy and natural resources of the country.

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