Forecasting the traffic share and environmental impacts of BRT using Discrete choice models: case study of Isfahan

One of the earliest applications of Logit models is forecasting the share of a new mode of transport. In the city of Isfahan in 2007 a need for a faster and more efficient transit system was highlighted due to the growth of population, traveler demands and the disadvantages of using passenger cars. We have applied multi nominal Logit models to commuter's mode choice in a corridor in Isfahan and used the model to predict BRT rider ship. A sample of commuters was taken for Isfahan Comprehensive Transportation and traffic studies before BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) was open for service and the data set is stated preference (SP). In this corridor, the share of each mode of transport for the present status and after BRT was opened for service has been forecasted by changing the parameters in the utility function like travel time and etc. Regarding the fact that after the accomplishment of the BRT project in this corridor, we could only have a bus line inside our BRT path, we used the same Logit function of the bus with different quantities for its utility function. The predicted share shows a great deal of interest towards BRT by the commuters and shows great deal of reduction in pollution and congestion. The highest percentage attracted to BRT is from commuters using private sector buses and passenger cars.

کلیدواژه ها:

BRT ، Multi Nominal Logit Models (MNL) ، SP ، Likelihood function ، Utility Function