Probabilistic Methods in Rock Slope Engineering: Basic concepts, Current Drawbacks and Possible Improvements

Rock slope engineering, especially, rock slope stability analysis, is a geotechnical engineering problem, characterized by many sources of uncertainties. Probabilistic methods in rock slope engineering have been brought engineers opportunities of taking such uncertainties into account. However, these methods also involve some drawbacks. One of the most important problems encountered in the probabilistic rock slope stability analysis is the correlation that exists among the random variables. Most of the existing probabilistic methods assume independency between the variables which involves calculations with remarkable inaccuracy. In this paper, basic concepts of current probabilistic methods are briefly reviewed. Next, some of their major drawbacks are mentioned. Finally, a Modified Monte Carlo Technique (MMCT) is introduced to improve the performance of the present analysis methods.

کلیدواژه ها:

Rock Slope Engineering ، Reliability Index ، Monte Carlo Simulation ، Independency