Using Fuzzy Numbers in Reliability Assessment of Electrical Distribution Systems

This paper recommends the use of fuzzy arithmetic and possibility theory in distribution system reliability assessment. The lack of enough statistical data due to either scarcity of event occurences or poor data collecting strategies especially in developing countries is an obstacle in the, way of reliability calculations. In order to overcome this problem some papers have suggested to replace probability with possibility. This is not the approach used here however. We donot discard probability but rather incorporate possibility to model the uncertainty in numerical values of parameters.om variables.Then e paper starts with a discussion of probability distributions of rand 1 ful concepts from fuzzy set theory are briefly reviewed. Classical reliability some use Formulas are next expanded to accept fuzzy numbers as well as crisp ones. Finally theapplicability and flexibility of the method are illustrated by calculating the reliability indices of a network whose failure and repair data is largely absent.