Modeling the full flowering date of Japanese cherry tree under climate change conditions

In this paper, a case study was performed on the influence of climate change on the full floweringdate of Japanese cherry tree (FFDJC) at Kyoto. It was revealed that there was a significant positive trendfor monthly and annual air temperature. Also, the results of trend analysis showed a significant advancein occurrence of FFDJC. The results of regression analysis of FFDJC and climatic variables during ingrowing season for the study period (1946-1996) showed a significant negative correlation betweenFFDJC and the mean air temperature of March but the linear regression developed between FFDJC andaverage air temperature of March did not present a good performance during the validation period(i.e.1997-2008). In an attempt to improve the performance of the model, cumulative mean airtemperature was replaced by cumulative degree-days (CDD). The results showed that FFDJC had asignificant positive correlation with CDD. The linear regression model developed between FFDJC andCDD did a better job comparing with the other linear regression model in simulation of FFDJC with ahigher accuracy.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate Change ، Cherry ، Phenology