Quantitative risk analysis in a production Planning problem  Fulltext 

[ Morteza Bagherpour ] - Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
[ Siamak Noori ] - Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and echnology, Tehran, Iran
[ Ehsan Parhizghar ] - Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

خلاصه مقاله:

Multi Period Multi Production (MPMP) problems are well known in the literature and several researches had been carried out in this area. The MPMP problem including machine order visit has focused by a little researchers since ١٩٩٩. As a result, a hybrid simulation analysis – analytical model developed in ٢٠٠٥. However, most of focused researches had been investigated MPMP through a deterministic situation. Since in operational environments, many risk factors e.g. probabilistic duration, lag time, start and finish of each activity may be happened, in this paper above mentioned factors will be taken into consideration in order to obtain most likely finish time resulting from probabilistic nature of production environment. The approach helps manufacturer to have a better delivery performance to the customer and forecast most likely finish time more precise. Likewise, a planned value for cost control system can be determined.

MPMP, Network modeling, Monte Carlo Analysis, Probabilistic modeling, production completion time