RISK POTENTIAL ANALYSIS FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE FIRES EARTHQUAKE RISK MANAGEMENT

Fires are the most dangerous of the secondary impacts from earthquakes. Cities located in active seismic regions with high population and building density are exposed to high risk of fire destruction after earthquakes. A good simulation model associated with Geographic Information System (GIS) for fire potential prediction is helpful to hazard mitigation as well as preparedness. The Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 and the 331 earthquake in 2002 registered 7.3 and 6.9 on the Richter scale, respectively, caused severe damages in Taiwan. Taipei city, the capital with more than 2.6 million residents, was focused for the study of potential simulation of fires following these two earthquakes. Among many variables affecting earthquake-related fires, three important parameters, ground shaking intensity, building density, and population density were selected as key factors of the simulation model in this stage. For the all 89 fire events (including gas leak accidents) recorded, a simple simulation model for fire potential analysis was developed. Data of 449 boroughs of Taipei city at the Chi-Chi earthquake and the 331 earthquake were retrieved and imported into the post-earthquake fire potential simulation model. Fire potential maps of Taipei city were generated based on the simulation results and good correspondence between high fire potential and the recorded post-earthquake fire events was found in this study.