Economic evaluation of vehicle brand change in rollover crashes with an emphasis on safety impacts
سال انتشار: 1396
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 451
فایل این مقاله در 12 صفحه با فرمت PDF قابل دریافت می باشد
- صدور گواهی نمایه سازی
- من نویسنده این مقاله هستم
استخراج به نرم افزارهای پژوهشی:
شناسه ملی سند علمی:
TTC17_244
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 26 مرداد 1397
چکیده مقاله:
The aim of this study is to conduct an economic evaluation on the safety impacts of a change in a vehicle brand in Iranian fleet. This is done through conducting a sensitivityanalysis on a constructed Binomial Logistic Regression Model (BLRM). The results revealed that a hypothetical investment is not always economic. It depends on the difference between the intended vehicle and the subjected vehicle price and also on the amount of the reduction of driver’s death or injury probability. As an example, although the reduction of death or injury probability is the same for a change from Pride to Samand (from 0.319 to 0.298) and Peugeot 405 (from 0.319 to 0.299) to Samand (all the three are Iranian famous car brands), but changing Prides to Samands is not economic (investment rate of return =6%) because of the large price difference of these two vehicle brands (approximately 15 million Tomans); and it is economic for Peugeots 405 (investment rate of return =17%) since the price difference is much lower (3 million Tomans).
کلیدواژه ها:
Economic evaluation ، vehicle brand change ، benefit-cost ratio ، rate of return ، sensitivity analysis ، binomial logistic regression model ، rollover crashes
نویسندگان
Hessam Arefkhani
M.Sc. in Transportation Engineering, School of civil engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran;Ph.D. student of Transportation Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran,
Moslem Azizi
Ph.D. student of Transportation Engineering, School of civil engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran,
Ali Tavakoli Kashani
Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, School of civil engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.