Ehsani - Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iranو Iran Grid Management Company, Tehran, Iran
Ranjbar - Iran Grid Management Company, Tehran, Iran
Samani - Iran Grid Management Company, Tehran, Iran

This paper proposes an analytical probabilistic model for reliability evaluation of competitive electricity markets. The market reliability is evaluated by using Markov state space diagram. Since the market is a continuously operated system, the concept of absorbing states is applied to it in order to evaluate the reliability. The market states are identified by using market performance indices and the transition rates are calculated by using historical data. To illustrate interesting feature of the proposed methodology, a case study is carried out over a test system.

Electricity market, Markov modeling, reliability, performance indices