Eco-epidemiological study of cutaneous leishmaniasis using Geographical Information Systems in Fars province during 2009-2017

Background: The cutaneous leishmaniasis is one of the most important health problems in many areas of Iran, and the Fars province is also one of the active focus of severe pollution. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors of climate and ecological effective and their effects on leishmaniasis using the geographical information systems in Fars province.Objective: Determination of the relationship between environmental ecological variables and incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province during 2009-2017 Materials and Methods: In an ecological study, data were collected on eco-environmental factors of Fars province in Iran and on cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) cases from 2009 to 2017. Continuing with the creation of basic layers and data of descriptive information, it was determined by hot /cold point of disease focal and after utilizing the data from the synoptic stations and data of ecological, using the methods of geographic weight regression and the zonal analysis of these factors is determined their correlation with the occurrence of CL disease. Results: ordinary least square (OLS) analysis was used to determine the role of Eco-epidemiology factors to complete disease cycle and model completed by GWR shows that the population density variable is as the best determinate for prediction of CL disease (R2=0/61).The Regional analysis of the combatting variables under study showed that plain areas, deserts, height 1500 to 2000 meters, forest covering with plant-like species Acer monspessulanum cretaequs and scoparia ficus amygdalusand and erosion of the soil of the one (severe) were allocated to the most probable Zonal mean.Conclusion: The disease in the Fars province is expanding from central areas towards northern areas, which is a match with the phenomenon of warming the earth and the increase of temperature over the past few years. This could be a serious warning for the health systems of the Fars province, in order to expand the disease in free areas of illness.

کلیدواژه ها:

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis ، eco-epidemiological ، Geographical Information Systems