Study of Connection between Credit Risk and Export, Case Study: Export Development Bank of Iran

The main purpose of this research is to study the connection between credit risk and export activity by using univariate probit regression and bivariate probit model withendogenous variable. For the reason, binary variables of default and export development are defined based on customers credit fulfillment and their salesconcentration on export. The results of the research show that default event has negative effect on export and its marginal effect is increased as the sales concentrationon export is decreased. Thus customers with high concentration on export activity are less vulnerable to the negative effect of default event. This could be an importantissue regarding export financing decision making. On the other hand this research revealed that export promotion could increase default probability, though the marginaleffect is diminished in high and low levels of default probability. As whole, based on the results of this research it could be asserted that for decreasing the negativeeffects of default and export interaction, export financing should be more focused on customers with sound financial condition and export oriented sales.

کلیدواژه ها:

Credit Risk ، Default ، Export ، Univariate Probit ، Bivariate Probit with Endogenous Variable