The simulation of urban growth and environmental change by Using CA (Case study: Shemiran)

Urban growth has been the focus of urban researchers for a long time. Due to the complexity of the urban growth process, it is so less realistic to model urban growth using traditional urban models. Recently, urban researchers tend to develop a new kind of urban modeling method, Cellular Automata (CA). CA model has been under continues investigation since 1970s and has been applied in many disciplines due to its ability to model complex systemdynamics. In urban research field, researchers set up many CA models to simulate different urban phenomena such as sprawl process, pedestrian dynamics, emergency evacuation, land use change, population migration, etc. Thisresearch looks into the context on urban modeling and introduces a basic CA model, its origin in computing, and its usage in urban modeling practices. SLEUTH model was used for simulation of urban growth based on sustainable development in Shemiran. The result of urban simulation showed that no growth has been predicted by SLEUTH forthe year 2025. In the next step, UPLAN model used SLEUTH’s output as the input data. UPLAN model was run based on the sustainable development. UPLAN’s output which is the final allocation land use of Shemiran’s future growth has been analyzed in the last stage of this research.

کلیدواژه ها:

Modeling ، Cellular automata ، SLEUTH ، UPLAN ، Shemiran