ANALYSIS OF THE PLANNERS’ EXPECTATIONS TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN COASTAL PROVINCES OF IRAN

Climate variability and change have emerged as additional issues influencing planning strategies, especially in coastal environments that are susceptible flooding and erosion [1,6]. Planners must consider the rate and magnitude of climate change, range of uncertainty, and likelihood of potential impacts in assessing adaptation priorities and strategies [2]. These expectations of climate change are related to perceptions of risk; however, the magnitude of the event or range uncertainty is only one dimension of feeling at risk. Diverse expectations of the nature of climate change complicate reaching a working level of agreement and are major barriers to climate change adaptation (CCA) planning [4]. Differences in planner expectations and scientific projections of change may also impede mediated modeling or facilitated planning activities. This paper addresses the following question: How do coastal planners’ expectations of climate change compare to published projections of climate change The paper focuses on assessing expectations of the magnitude and uncertainty of global temperature and sea level change by 2030 and the likelihood of four climate impacts by the mid- to late 21st century.