Determining the Performance Coefficient of the Civil Construction Projects and Improving the Earned Value Management Indices (Case Study: Central Building of Shiraz’s Municipality

Earned value management (EVM) is one of the most frequently applied methods in project management for the investigation of the performance and controlling of the temporal and cost progress of the project. Using its temporal and cost control indices, this method is capable of predicting the future status of the project in terms of time and cost. But, this approach falls short of taking the risk analysis and project’s variability into account. according to the fact that EVM indices play an important role in managing temporal schedule and costs of the projects, there is always a need for more precise calculation of the indices with lower diversions and, considering the shortfalls of the present method of EVM and its falling short of taking the future conditions and contingent risks into consideration, one method for overcoming this problem in line with improving the projects’ time and cost prediction is the subjective and conceptual blending of risk management with earned value management. The primary goal of the present study is the conceptual and subjective combining of risk management and EVM and investigation of the effect of risk occurrence on the project’s objectives using the EVM indices. To collect the information on the theoretical foundations and study literature and study background, use has been made herein of the Persian and Latin books, articles, dissertations and information databases and questionnaire and interview have been the methods of choice for gathering the information pertinent to the scales and indices. Moreover, in order to identify and prioritize the risks, the perspectives of the sophisticated experts and managers in civil activities have been inquired and ANP and Super Decision Software have been the instruments of interest for information analysis. After analyzing and evaluating and prioritizing the risk, the risk management process has been applied along with challenging the dimensions and factors influencing the project’s prospective performance to offer the risk coefficient that was subsequently combined with the current EVM indices for increasing the accuracy and precision of the project goals’ estimation. A civil reconstruction project (central building project of Shiraz’s municipality) in progress was evaluated for applying and comparing this method.

کلیدواژه ها:

Project management ، Risk management ، Earned value management ، Risk impact coefficient ، Analytic Network Process (ANP)