A system dynamics approach to sustainable producers revenue: pomegranate production, Iran

Subject: The present research focuses on the mechanisms behind price fluctuation of the pomegranate fruit in a long horizon. Supply and demand, storage and processing facilities and the seasonality nature of the product have been investigated in order to simulate the situation in the future. The pomegranate production in Fras province, Iran has been chosen as a case study in order to demonstrate the problem. Aims: The aim of the research is to identify the areas and related strategies that could be implemented in order to avoid or lessen price fluctuation and ensure a sustainable income for producers in the long term. Research methodology: A system dynamics approach has been utilized, using the past 10 years data to simulate the situation in the next 10 years. The data are gathered for the pomegranate fruit production and processing in Fars province, Iran. The problem in hand has been articulated and modelled accordingly and has been simulated using the Vensim software. Summary of results: The results show that the revenue will start to decline in the time horizon of the simulation. Increasing domestic market size and consumption per capita as well as increasing export are shown to provide more sustainable future revenue for the producers.

کلیدواژه ها:

System dynamics ، price fluctuation ، pomegranate ، sustainable revenue ، agricultural economics