Impact of Climate Change on Ground Water Resources of Ardabil Plain

The Ardebil plain aquifer is located in Northwest Iran in the Province of Ardebil and its ground water resources are developed for water supply and irrigation purposes. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on ground water resources in the coming years of Ardebil plain. For this purpose, data recorded of 35 wells Piezometric were used during the period 1987-2006. HadCM3 climate model were used to predict variables of future climate scenarios. The results obtained in this study illustrate that LARS-WG has a reasonable capability of simulating the minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. Then genetic programming model used to simulate the historical data of precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and historical data on groundwater fluctuations and using the relationship of this model, well water levels were estimated for future years. The results indicate that a downfall in Piezometric levels in all wells studied under three climate change scenarios for the future.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate Change ، Ground Water Genetic Programming ، LARS-WG ، Weather Generator