Study of relationship between food security, urban population and development plans in Iran

Urban population growth (non-agricultural population) in developing countries haschallenged the food security of urban households. The precise demographic definition ofurbanization is the increasing share of a nation s population living in urban areas (and thus adeclining share living in rural areas). Mostly, urbanization is the result of net rural to urbanmigration. We investigated the food security among urban households and the effects andvarious factors involved for the period of 1983 to 2012. Results showed that during thisperiod the food security of urban households had an increasing trend. Despite theenhancement of food security among urban households, 5.6 percent of the urbanpopulations received less than necessary kilojoules level in 2012, role factors wereevaluated as well using time series pattern after estimation of urban household s aggregatefood security index (AHFSI). Results showed that effect lag variable of aggregate foodsecurity index changes on growth of aggregate food security index in the next year will besignificantly negative (at 1% level). These results exhibited that with increase in one-unitgrowth of food security index in one year, it would decrease by 0.008 units the next year.Every one percent increase of people receiving less than standard energy level will decreasethe growth of food security index by 0.009 units. This finding is significant at 10 percentlevel. Nevertheless, the 1st to 3rd five-year development plans showed more growths onfood security indices in comparison with the 4th development plan. Furthermore, the seconddevelopment plan showed the maximum increase of food security index in comparison withthe 4th development plan. Based on the results, the constant and steadily increasing trend ofthe food security index should be considered as a priority in the future development plans

کلیدواژه ها:

Food security ، Non- agricultural population ، Development plans ، Iran