Do Political News Affect Financial Market Returns? Evidences from Brazil

سال انتشار: 1395
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 325

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

JR_IJMAE-3-10_003

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 7 اسفند 1395

چکیده مقاله:

This paper investigates the relation between political news and market returns. To do so we applied a Garch filter to a sample of the main Brazilian stock market index returns (Ibovespa Index) and of short-term interest rates (Selic Over and DI) which ranged from 01/02/2014 to 04/29/2016. Then we looked for periods of abnormal volatility which might be associated with political events using a parametric and a nonparametric method. Notwithstanding there were news like important politician been arrested and even speculation about the beginning of an impeachment process, we found relation between abnormal volatilities and political news only in Ibovespa returns during Presidential Elections.

نویسندگان

Thales Batiston Marques

Economia e Relações Internacionais, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil

Nelson Seixas dos Santos

Economia e Relações Internacionais, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil