Assessment of impact of climate change on potato and potential adaptation gains in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

India is the second largest producer of potato in the world. The Indo-Gangeticplains (IGP) is the main potato growing region accounting for almost 85% of the1.8 Mha under the crop in India where it is grown as an irrigated crop during thewinter season. Since IGP is in sub-tropical plains, duration of the thermally suitablewindow is the main determinant limiting yields. Hence the impact of climatechange on potato in the IGP was assessed using MIROC HI.3.2 A1b and B1,PRECIS A1b, A2, B2 scenarios and estimated the potential adaptation gains. Thepotato crop duration in the IGP is projected to decrease due to climate change. Theevapotranspiration (ET) is projected to increase while the water use efficiency(WUE) for potato yield is projected to decline in future climates as a consequenceof low threshold temperatures for decline in WUE and yield than the ET. Resultsindicate that the upper threshold for ET decrease is ~23 oC while that for WUE is15 oC. The optimal temperatures for tuber yield is ~17 oC and thus the reduction inWUE in future climates is discernable. Climate change is projected to reducepotato yields by ~2.5, ~6 and ~11% in the IGP region in 2020 (2010-2039), 2050(2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time periods. Change in planting time is thesingle most important adaptation option which may lead to yield gains by ~6% in2020 and its combination with improved variety or additional nitrogen may be required to adapt to climate change leading to positive gains by ~8% in 2020 andby ~5% even in 2050. However, in 2080 adoption of all the three adaptationstrategies may be needed for positive gains. Intra-regional differences in the impactof climate change and adaptation gains are projected; positive impact in northwestern IGP, gains in Central IGP with adaptation and yield loss in eastern IGPeven with adaptation.

کلیدواژه ها:

Indo-Gangetic plains ، potato ، Climate Change ، InfoCrop ، Crop modelling