Modeling of the vulnerability of biomass energy sub-sector to climate change in Togo.

سال انتشار: 1392
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 386

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

JR_SJR-3-1_001

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 9 اسفند 1393

چکیده مقاله:

Biomass energy accounts for 80 % of total energy consumed in Togo. But its potential decreases exponentially as a result of population growth and the fact that the techniques of production and consumption are still archaic and climate change. The aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the sub-sector of biomass energy in Togo by a modeling approach. Specifically, it is i) to study the evolution of the household demand for fuelwood and ii ) to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of sub-sector of biomass energy (mainly charcoal and firewood) in Togo. Demand scenarios of fuelwood were developed from the LEAP model. The vulnerability analysis is made by coupling the demands and the potential of fuelwood and by taking into account the parameters of climate change. At the end of this study, it appears that the fuelwood demands evolve exponentially and that the sector is vulnerable to future climate change. In addition, the potential of fuelwood is very deficient compared to the demand for years to come and will be exhausted before the year 2025. The current energy and forestry policies are far from fill this gap.

نویسندگان

j.k fontodji

Laboratoire de Botanique et Ecologie Végétale, Université de Lomé, BP : ۱۵۱۵ Lomé, Togo.

p.b.i akponikpe

Unité de Physique du sol et d’Hydraulique de l’Environnement (PSHE), Faculté d’Agronomie, Université de Parakou, ۰۳ BP ۳۵۱ Université, Parakou, Bénin.

k kokou

Laboratoire de Botanique et Ecologie Végétale, Université de Lomé, BP : ۱۵۱۵ Lomé, Togo.