Electricity - Economy Interactions in Iran: A System Dynamic Approach

This study aims at providing a macro energy model for Iran's electricity sector. Major parts of this model are Production sector including GDP, Consumption sector including private and government consumption, Investment sector including investment in electricity and other sectors, and electricity consumption sector including Residential, Industry and Agriculture consumption. In this model, the causal relations between electricity and real sectors of the economy have been simulated with a system dynamicapproach. And the parameters of the model have been calibrated. Then through three scenarios the effects of price changing of the electricity prices in three sectors on electricity consumption, electricity investment and GDP growth, as a major strategy of electricity section have been examined. Those three scenarios are A) price stabilization of electricity prices. B) Increase of electricity prices with attention to inflation rate. C) Determination the electricity prices, firstly upon the total cost in a particular year. Thenincrease with attention to inflation rate. Which makes electricity consumption increase? Comparing the results of these three scenarios, we come into conclusion that threescenarios decrease the consumption and investment of electricity in different degrease, rising from scenario A to C. However it was also understand that the three scenarios affected the GDP growth differently. Scenario B increases the GDP growth more than A and C in long runs. Scenario C increases the GDP growth more than A and B in short runs. But in long run is less than the other scenarios.

کلیدواژه ها:

System Dynamic ، Macroeconomic model ، electricity Model ، Energy model