Developing the Electricity Demand Model for Iran’s Residential Sector; Based on LEAP

The present study has used LEAP model (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) in order to forecast the electricity demand of Iran’s residential sector based on bottom-up approach. The model has been run under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, with inclusion of the plans and policies which have been done in the past and are active in the present time. The validation of the model has shown that LEAP could simulate the past electricity demand of Iran’s residential sector by less than 0.43 MSPE (Mean Square Percent Error). According to the estimated results, electricity demand in Iran’s residential sector will be increased by average annual growth rate of 1.93% and will reach to 108.54 TWh in 2041

کلیدواژه ها:

LEAP ، residential electricity demand ، estimation