SYNTHETIC STOCHASTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO PREDICTIVE MODEL, CASE STUDY: THE IRANIAN PLATEAU SEQUENCES

In this research, it is attempted to propose a new simulating model for generating random synthetic earthquake scenario containing both seismological, and acceleration time series properties during the certain period of time selected equal to the lifetime of buildings from the engineering perspective. In this regard, as a case study, the Iranian plateau is selected, since there are rich databases of both earthquake events and recorded accelerograms for this area. Accordingly, the processed event catalogue of the Iranian plateau is used to generate a framework for producing random mainshocks and their corresponding aftershocks sequence. The moment magnitude, time of occurrence, and the number of mainshocks and aftershocks are the output of this step. In the next pace, the probability distributions of the major seismic parameters like the site to source distance, the focal depth, the shear wave velocity on underlying soil at 30m depth, etc. are determined for the Iranian plateau. Then, these parameters as well as the output results of previous step model are considered as input parameters for the synthetic stochastic accelerogram simulating model, and 3-dimensional random accelerograms are procreated. This simulating model is a powerful tool for the structural engineers dealing with the lifetime seismic risk assessment of buildings.

کلیدواژه ها:

Base Accelerogram ، Aftershock ، Earthquake Scenario ، Mainshock ، Pulse-like