THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF F ORECASTING BASED ON COUPLING ATMOSPHERIC AND HYDROLOGIC MODELS

Coupling atmospheric and hydrologic models is an important method for hydrogeology technicians to stimulate and forecast hydrological processes, which not only lengthens the effective forecasting time, but also improves stimulation and predication of atmospheric model by offering a scientific scheme of Land Surface Process. Research on coupling atmospheric and hydrology has become an important issue in both meteorology and hydrology. This paper makes an explore to set up a snowmelt runoff forecasting mode combing closely practical application in meso-microscale, which is based on the newest development of atmospheric hydrology include: The limited-region 24-hour Numeric Weather Forecasting System is established by using the new generation atmospheric model Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) V2.2 with the initial fields and lateral boundaries provided by the T213 L31 from Chinese National Meteorological Bureau. The predicted spatial resolution is 1km, the temporal is 1h. The predicted results accorded with the observed on the whole, have got a good effect. The self-design distributed snowmelt runoff model based on energy balance, water balance and 3S technology was established in this study. It is designed that taking RS (MODIS, ETM) data and the observed data on spot as the main data sources, model parameters with spatial and temporal difference should be processed in spatial distributed form. In application the distributed Xinjiang snowmelt runoff model was drived by the forecasted meteorological field from WRF and snowmelt data to forecast snowmelt flood processes. The results indicate: the predicted runoff process fitted close to the observed. The method offers useful reference for hydrological forecasting and water resources management in the areas without data or data missing.

کلیدواژه ها:

Coupling atmospheric and hydrologic models ، Numeric Weather Forecasting ، Snowmelt runoff forecasting