Bernd Domres - Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h. c

Risk (1) is defined according to the scientific community of the ISDR (2004) as:„Probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, livelihood, economic activity disrupted or environmental damage) resulting from interactions between natural or human – induced hazards nd vulnerability conditions . Risks with the relevance to health disasters (2) include many factors: That a hazard (f. e. H1 N5 virus) exists; That the hazard becomes an event (infection);That the event causes health damage; That the health damage is of such an amount (Influenza Pandemic), that it exceeds the resources of the country to cope with it and external assistance is necessary.In Disaster Risk Management the following equation of the definition is used: Risk Definition Risk = P x C (L1 + L2 + L3 + L4) x V : RC (P) Probability of occurrence of a disaster (C) Consequences (L1) Loss of lives (L2) Material losses (L3) Social disruptions (L4) Environmental damages (V) Vulnerability of the community(RC) Resilience, capacity to cope with the emergency This equation is used for the risk management of countries. Mistakes of risk management in health emergencies are overestimation (f.e. Simple way of dissemination of biological agents like Anthrax Germs) and underestimation of risks (airport security 09. 11.2001).Summary: It is evident for the best benefit and outcome of victims in a disaster with a mass of casualties, that we invest our main emphasis and efforts in: Risk Management, Prevention and Mitigation! Our challenge is to apply what is evidence based! References:1. ISDR (2004): Living with Risks. A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives. www.unisdr.org 23 November 2004 2. Jeffrey L. Arnold: Risk and Risk Assessment in Health Emergency Management, http://pdm.medicine.wisc.edu 3. DHA News, May 1996

Loss of lives, Material losses, Social disruptions