Davood Mafi Gholami - Assistant Professor, Department of forest science, Faculty of natural resources and earth science, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran,

Mangrove forests, like other ecosystems, are subject to various disturbances that vary in their intrinsic nature (e.g., geological, physical, chemical, biological) in time and space. Mangroves and other coastal ecosystems offer significant opportunities for climate change adaptation and mitigation, including livelihood support, food security and storm/flood protection. Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. Based on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts, mangrove forests along arid coasts, in subsiding river deltas, and on many islands are predicted to decline in area, structural complexity, and/or in functionality, but mangroves will continue to expand poleward. It is highly likely that they will survive into the foreseeable future as sea level, global temperatures, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise. The ultimate disturbance, climate change, may lead to a maximum global loss of 10-15% of mangrove forest, but must be considered of secondary importance compared with current average annual rates of 1-2% deforestation. Mangroves will survive into the future but there have already been, and will continue to be, more negative than positive impacts due to climate change. Mangroves are expanding their latitudinal range as global temperatures continue to rise. Mangrove forests will either experience little change or some positive impact in areas where precipitation is forecast to increase. The greatest current threat to mangrove survival, however, is deforestation and such continuing losses must be considered in tandem with the impact of climate change.

climate change, ecological impacts, mangroves