پیش‌نگری خشکسالی با استفاده از داده‌های گزارش پنجم ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در منطقه بیرجند

Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating phenomenon which has been more frequent due to climate change consequences in recent decades. The aim of this study is to project the agricultural drought in Birjand station, Iran using outputs of five GCM models approved in IPPC fifth assessment report, AR۵, namely MIROC-ESM, GFDL-ESM۲M, HADGEM۲-ES, CSIRO-MK۳.۶ and IPSL-CM۵A-LR under RCP۴.۵ and RCP۸.۵ scenarios. The retrieved outputs were downscaled using LARS-WG statistical model for the future period (۲۰۵۵-۲۰۲۵). For monitoring the drought the Self Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity index (SC-PDSI) during the baseline (۱۹۷۵- ۲۰۰۵) and future period was used. The results indicated that occurrence of droughts during future period will increase comparing to baseline, which might be caused by climate change in the study region. Models projections under both scenario revealed that the (۲۰۲۶-۲۰۳۵) period would experience more severe drought comparing to remaining years. According to results, the highest number of drought events in future period was projected by MIROC-ESM and CSIROMK ۳.۶, models under RCP۸.۵ scenario.

کلیدواژه ها:

تغییر اقلیم ، شاخص خشکسالی پالمر ، مدل‌های AOGCM ، LARS-WG