تبیین عوامل سیاسی کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران در افق زمانی ۱۴۱۰

Extended AbstractIntroductionPolitics and its related components have a prominent role in relations between countries and their national power. Meanwhile, the defense power of countries is not unaffected by the governing policies of countries and political factors. Military-defense power of countries has a direct and significant relationship with the prevailing political factors and political decisions. Due to the special geopolitical situation and peripheral threats, Iran has always paid attention to increasing its power and defense capability in order to achieve sustainable security, and the governing political factors of Iran have effect on defense power. MethodologyIn this study, in order to explain the key political factors affecting Iran's defense power in ۱۴۱۰, by studying the relevant documents and previous scientific records and using the opinions of ۵۰ experts, ۹۷ political figures were identified. In the second step, with the formation of the expert panel, similar factors were merged and ۳۶ factors were identified. Then, based on the opinion of experts, the values of the factors were ranked and ۲۶ important and effective factors were determined. Finally, by using Micmac software and crossover matrix analysis method, ۱۲ significant factors and ۴ factors as key political factors affecting Iran's defense power were identified. It should be noted that the research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey methods (using the opinion of experts and a questionnaire). Results and DiscussionAccording to the software output, ۴ key factors:The wisdom of leadership and the managerial skills and ability of the country's political leadersThe country's membership and influence in regional and global alliances and treaties, and the power and credibility of regional and supra-regional allies, and the number of strategic partners (powerful countries) of Iran.Changes in regional powers and the emergence of new poles of power in the region and the establishment of a multipolar system in the world and the decline of the United States from the position of a superior hegemon and the emergence of China as a new international hegemony.Continuation of Iran's strongly anti-American foreign policy and areas of dispute (nuclear, human rights, terrorism, Israel) with the international community and the status of Iran's nuclear case in the Security Council and the United Nations.They were identified as the most important and key political factors affecting Iran's defense power. Also, four scenarios: development, obstruction, isolation and political risk were identified, which is the ideal and desirable scenario for the country in order to gain superior defense power, to be in a state of political development.ConclusionAccording to the theory of deterrence, as well as the teachings of the Qur'an and Islam, which emphasize the need for defense readiness against enemies, the need to strengthen the country's military capability to create defensive deterrence and ensure the interests and national security of the country is essential. Be. In this regard, according to the results of the research of four key political forces influencing the country's defense power should be used by military officials and commanders in formulating military strategies to create deterrence and achieve lasting security in the country.

کلیدواژه ها:

قدرت ، قدرت دفاعی ، دیپلماسی دفاعی ، آینده پژوهی ، نرم افزار میک مک