Dynamics of tobacco use, scenarios and combat policies

Background: Introduction and statement of the problem: A review of the history of tobaccocontrol efforts shows that tobacco control and public health have become a complex set ofinterconnected systems and requires the exploration of approaches and methodologies that speakto the evolving and dynamic nature of this slow environment What is investigated in this article isthe systemic dynamics view of the issue of tobacco control policies.Methods: The research methodology is based on the stages of the system dynamics method. Oneof the prominent features of this methodology is that it provides the possibility of evaluatingdifferent decision policies in the form of scenarios and by simulating the results of policyimplementation in a small environment and in the form of a model, it facilitates decision making,in order to make this The model uses a sample of parameters used in research models abroad anddata from various researches on the prevalence of smoking inside the country.Results: The findings and analysis of the model suggest two fighting policies. a) The policy ofreducing the consumption rate: which can be a set of inputs including raising awareness andcontinuously evaluating the effectiveness in the form of an active learning plan focusing on targetgroups and... b) The policy of increasing the effective and non-returning rate including helping toquit smoking by setting up smoking cessation clinics (drug therapy, insurance coverage, etc.)Conclusion: Looking at the field of tobacco, either with the approach of system dynamics or withqualitative and descriptive methods, shows that there is no quantitative decision support systemthat can measure the effectiveness of the development policies of this system. In order to identifythe cause of the problem with the help of dynamic hypotheses and to improve the behavior of theimportant variables of the problem with the aim of simulating the proposed policies. Of course, theimportant issue in any model drawing is proper access to valuable and correct data andinformation. that this information and data cannot be obtained easily and transparently in Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Systems Dynamics ، Combat Policies ، Tobacco