Evaluation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters by Bayesian Method for Different Source Regions in Zagros Seismotectonic Province

In this study, we used the program for seismic hazard Bayesian estimate elaborated by Alexey Lyubushin. However, earthquake hazard parameters of maximum magnitude (Mmax), β value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties for the ۳۰ different source regions in Zagros seismotectonic province have been evaluated with the help of a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog during the period ۱۹۰۰-۲۰۱۹ with Mw ≥ ۴.۰. The estimated Mmax values vary between ۵.۰۵ and ۷.۴۱. The lowest value is observed in the MZ۳ source whereas the highest value is observed in the MZ۲ source. Also, it is observed that there is a strong relationship between the estimated maximum earthquake magnitudes estimated by the Bayesian method and maximum observed magnitudes. Moreover, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude for future time intervals of ۱۰, ۲۰, ۵۰, ۱۰۰, ۴۷۵ years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of ۵۰, ۶۰, ۷۰, ۸۰, ۹۰, ۹۵, and ۹۸% in ۳۰ different source regions. MZ۲ source shows earthquake magnitude greater than ۷.۰ in next ۱۰۰-years with ۹۰% probability level as compared to other regions, which declares that these regions are more susceptible to the occurrence of a large earthquake. The outcomes obtained in the study may have useful implications in probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Zagros seismotectonic province.

کلیدواژه ها:

Earthquake hazard parameter ، Bayesian method ، Maximum magnitude (Mmax) ، Zagros seismotectonic province