An analysis of volatility and herd behavior among investors in the S&P۵۰۰ stock market index, Bitcoin, and gold markets

In recent years, cryptocurrency has attracted more attention and is a new option in the economy and the financial sector. The purpose of this study is to the volatility and “herd behavior” of the cryptocurrency, gold, and stock markets in the US. This research is aimed at investor “herd behavior” and how it correlates with the volatility of three assets: the Standard & Poor's ۵۰۰ indexes, Bitcoin, and gold. Also, A new formula by applying the conditional standard deviation (risk), maximum return, minimum return, and average return to quantify the herding bias is designed in this research. In this study, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH) and the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) were both employed. Research results show that Bitcoin is ۳.۳ times as volatile as the S&P ۵۰۰ and ۴.۶ times as volatile as gold. The results of this novel equation also show that the herding bias of Bitcoin is more than ۲۶ times higher than the global average and ۱۰ times higher than the S&P ۵۰۰. Also, it’s important to consider the energy consumption and sustainability of investments when evaluating their long-term viability and risk. In some cases, investments in companies with strong sustainability practices and low carbon footprints may be seen as lower risk. Since Bitcoin relies on a network of computers to validate transactions based on proof of work and it is an energy consumption consensus mechanism, investment in Bitcoin may be seen as a higher risk.

کلیدواژه ها:

Herd mentality bias ، Volatility ، Bitcoin ، S& P۵۰۰ ، Gold