Development of a Catastrophe Risk Model to Manage Earthquake Risk and to Promote Catrisk Insurance in Iran

Many cities in Iran are exposed to seismic hazards with high potential for future human and economic disasters. There have been devastating earthquakes in recent decades with significant economic, social and political consequences. These events highlight the importance of effective risk management initiatives and have createddemands for reliable assessments of catastrophe risks exposures in Iran. Among other concerns, demands for catrisk models to manage catastrophe risk transfer in terms ofcommercial insurance have been growing in recent years. This paper summarizes the methodology and preliminary results for a first-hand effort to provide a full probabilistic earthquake loss model for Iran. In this paper application of catrisk mode for insurance and reinsurance risk pricing as well as accumulation control measures are presented. The paper also attracts attentions on how computer loss modelling can aid optimal design of property insurance program for mega cities in the developing countries where people generally cannot afford full risk-based insurance premium. It highlights how catastrophe risk assessment tools, used together with reliable building inventories and scientific knowledge, can help the insurance industry design affordable yet manageable catastrophe insurance products. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households.

کلیدواژه ها:

Catrisk Insurance ، Catastrophe Loss Modelling ، Developing Countries ، Seismic Risk